VELA Summary Bank Model

Documentation (PDF)
Inputs Assumptions
Ticker
Required Return (%)\(r_r\): Required rate of return (discount rate) — the investor's minimum acceptable return.
Industry Dividend/Share\(D\): Trailing twelve-month dividends.
\(DPS_t = \dfrac{NI_t \cdot (DPR/100)}{SC_0}\)
Current Price\(P_0\): Current stock price. Dividend Payout Ratio (%)\(DPR\): Dividend payout ratio — percentage of earnings paid as dividends. Typically \(\text{Dividends} / \text{Net Income}\).
Calculated Terminal Multiple P/B (x)\(adjPB_5\): Adjusted price-to-book multiple at year 5.
\(adjPB_5 = \dfrac{P_0 / TBVPS_0 + 1}{2}\)
Manual Terminal Multiple P/B (x)User override for the terminal P/B multiple. If set, replaces the calculated \(adjPB_5\) in the terminal value calculation.
Base Year Terminal Year
Return on Equity (%)\(ROE_0\): Base-year return on equity — measures how efficiently the bank generates profits from its equity base.
\(ROE_t = ROE_0 + \frac{t}{5}(ROE_5 - ROE_0)\)
Return on Equity (%)\(ROE_5\): Terminal-year return on equity target.
\(ROE_t = ROE_0 + \frac{t}{5}(ROE_5 - ROE_0)\)
Net Income ($B)\(NI_0\): Net income for the base year. Net Income ($B)\(NI_5\): Terminal-year net income.
\(NI_t = TBV_{t-1} \cdot \dfrac{ROE_t}{100}\)
Tangible Book Value ($B)\(TBV_0\): Base tangible book value — shareholders' equity excluding intangible assets. Tangible Book Value ($B)\(TBV_5\): Terminal tangible book value.
\(TBV_t = TBV_{t-1} + NI_t(1 - DPR/100)\)
Share Count (#M)\(SC_0\): Share count at the start of the period (in millions). Share Count (#M)\(SC_5\): Projected share count at year 5 (in millions).
Tangible Book Value/Share\(TBVPS_0\): Tangible book value per share.
\(TBVPS_t = \dfrac{TBV_t}{SC_0}\)
Tangible Book Value/Share\(TBVPS_5\): Terminal tangible book value per share.
\(TBVPS_t = \dfrac{TBV_t}{SC_0}\)
Valuation
Estimate of Intrinsic Value\(IV\): Intrinsic value — present value of projected dividends plus discounted terminal value.
\(IV = \displaystyle\sum_{t=1}^{5}\frac{DPS_t}{(1+r)^t} + \frac{TV_5}{(1+r)^5}\)
Intrinsic Value in Year 5\(TV_5\): Terminal value — estimated value at end of year 5.
\(TV_5 = TBVPS_5 \times adjPB_5\)
Premium/Discount to Intrinsic ValuePrice / IV = \(\dfrac{P_0}{IV}\). Above 1 means the stock trades above estimated value; below 1 suggests undervaluation.
Expected Return\(r^*\): Expected return — the IRR that sets NPV to zero.
\(0 = -P_0 + \displaystyle\sum_{t=1}^{4}\frac{DPS_t}{(1+r^*)^t} + \frac{DPS_5 + TV_5}{(1+r^*)^5}\)

Years

Year Trailing Year 3 Trailing Year 2 Trailing Year 1 Base Year Year 1 Year 5
Return on Equity (%)\(ROE_t\): Return on equity, linearly interpolated.
\(ROE_t = ROE_0 + \frac{t}{5}(ROE_5 - ROE_0)\)
000 000
Net Income ($B)\(NI_t\): Net income based on prior year's book value and ROE.
\(NI_t = TBV_{t-1} \cdot \dfrac{ROE_t}{100}\)
000 000
Share Count (#M)\(SC_0\): Share count (in millions). 000 000
Dividend/Share\(DPS_t\): Dividends per share.
\(DPS_t = \dfrac{NI_t \cdot (DPR/100)}{SC_0}\)
000 000
Tangible Book Value/Share\(TBVPS_t\): Tangible book value per share.
\(TBVPS_t = \dfrac{TBV_t}{SC_0}\)
000 000